September 6, 2022
Excess Mortality Doubled for Americans Aged 35 to 44: Edward Dowd on New Society of Actuaries Data
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A former Wall Street analyst and BlackRock portfolio manager, Edward Dowd has been analyzing excess mortality data from the CDC and from insurance companies with his partner, Josh Stirling, an insurance analyst. Excess mortality or excess deaths refers to the number of deaths from all causes above what would be expected under normal circumstances.
Earlier this year, the CEO of a major life insurance company said death rates among working-age Americans had gone up 40 percent from pre-pandemic levels. A recent report by the Society of Actuaries now reinforces this alarming data, Dowd says.
“In the 25 to 34 [age group], they saw 78 percent excess mortality in the third quarter of 2021. They also saw, in the 35 to 44 age group, 100 percent excess mortality,” Dowd says.
Dowd said he and Stirling looked at data from the CDC and arrived at similar numbers: “The age cohort from 25 to 44, which we call the millennials, experienced an 84 percent rise of excess mortality into the fall of 2021—August, September, October—and the rate of change was just dramatic. So they’re running around 40, 50 percent in the summer, and then this parabolic spike move up into the fall,” says Edward Dowd.
Dowd is the author of the upcoming book, “‘Cause Unknown’: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022.”
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Below is a rush transcript of this American Thought Leaders episode from Sep 6, 2022. This transcript may not be in its final form and may be updated.